How to Read an NFL Box Score and Win Probability Chart
Updated November 9, 2026. Rules are based on the 2026 NFL rulebook.
Every game on this site ends with a set of tables and a chart. This guide explains what they show and which numbers tell you the most about how a game was won.
The line score
The line score shows each team's points by quarter, with a final total. An extra column labeled OT appears when a game goes to overtime. A glance tells you the shape of a game: whether one team pulled away early or came back late.
Team stats, line by line
| Stat | Example | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 478 | Passing plus rushing yards gained |
| Passing yards | 349 | Yards through the air, minus yards lost on sacks |
| Rushing yards | 129 | Yards gained on running plays |
| First downs | 22 | How many times the team earned a new set of downs |
| Third down | 4-12 | Converted 4 of 12 third-down tries |
| Fourth down | 0-1 | Converted 0 of 1 fourth-down tries |
| Red zone | 4-5 | Converted 4 of 5 trips inside the opponent's 20-yard line |
| Turnovers | 2 | Interceptions thrown plus fumbles lost |
| Sacks allowed | 3-23 | Quarterback sacked 3 times for 23 yards lost |
| Penalties | 3-14 | Three penalties for 14 yards |
| Time of possession | 35:01 | How long the team had the ball |
Which numbers matter most
Turnovers. Winning the turnover count is one of the strongest signs of who won. Each turnover ends a drive and can hand the opponent good field position.
Third-down rate. Converting on third down keeps drives alive and keeps the other offense on the sideline. Around 40 percent is generally considered solid.
Red zone scoring. Getting close and settling for a field goal is a loss of four points compared to a touchdown. Teams that finish drives tend to win close games.
Be careful with total yards. A team can pile up yards late in a game that is already decided. Likewise, time of possession can look lopsided simply because the winning team ran out the clock at the end.
Reading player lines
Passing lines read as completions/attempts, yards, touchdowns and interceptions, so 23/29, 372 YDS, 3 TD, 0 INT means 23 completions on 29 attempts. Rushing lines read as carries, yards and touchdowns. Receiving lines read as catches, yards and touchdowns. You can also see how these numbers feed our Game MVP formula.
The win probability chart
The line on each game page shows the winning team's estimated chance of winning at each point in the game. It starts near the middle, near 50 percent, and finishes at 100 percent. A reading of 75 percent means a team in that situation, given the score, time and field position, would be expected to win about three times out of four.
Here is what to look for:
- A steady climb means the winner took control and stayed in front.
- A line that crosses 50 percent repeatedly means a back-and-forth game.
- A sudden vertical jump means one play changed the game. We highlight the largest as the biggest swing.
- A line that stays low for a long time and then jumps means a comeback.
Keep in mind that this is an estimate, not a prediction of what had to happen. A team at 90 percent still loses about one time in ten, and those are the games people remember.